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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Hitter Vulnerabilities

The biggest hitter/pitch-trait mismatches in MLB. Each row is a (hitter, pitch bucket) pair where the hitter's damage per swing is significantly above or below baseline. Toggle baseline between vs league (who's elite/poor against this kind of pitch) and vs own(what stands out within that hitter's own envelope). Drill into any hitter via the link.
Baseline
Direction
Slice
Pitch group
Seasons
Showing 0 of 0 qualifying buckets
HitterBucketn swingsDamage/swingLeagueΔzWhiff%xwOBAcon
No qualifying buckets at the current filters.
Reading the table

vs leaguez-score asks “does this hitter beat the typical major-leaguer in this bucket?” — the top hits are usually elite hitters across the board. vs ownz-score asks “is this bucket uncharacteristic for this hitter?” — it surfaces a hitter's personal pitch-shape holes and pet pitches regardless of their overall level. Damage per swing folds in whiffs and fouls (they score 0) so a high-whiff bucket drags the cell down even when the contact-quality is fine. Z-score uses the league's per-swing variance scaled by the hitter's bucket sample size; n ≥ 30 in the bucket and n ≥ 500 overall are required to make the cut.