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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #44 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Aaron Ashby
Aaron Ashby · #44
V⁻ —VORP -12V⁺ —
Aaron Ashby

Aaron Ashby

RP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
172
K %
32.6%
BB %
11.0%
xwOBA
.280
PTS
141
PPG
4.86
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj45151.053383.383.3926.0%11.6%14.4%————1453.22
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
94
97.4
FB Spin
10
2122
Extension
2026
29
1
40.0
9
0
0
2
3.15
2.85
32.6%
11.0%
21.6%
.280
.370
76.2%
53.7%
141
4.86
202550473.352372.452.9828.1%8.9%19.2%.278.31583.2%62.4%2154.30
202416333.713034.012.9227.7%8.4%19.3%.275.32361.1%60.5%583.63
20222919111.7210114.593.9926.5%9.9%16.6%.304.32967.8%57.4%1615.55
202115434.332114.723.5729.3%9.0%20.3%.269.29959.4%63.0%775.13
1
5.48
Results
xwOBA
86
.280
Barrel %
91
5.3
Hard-Hit %
27
43.2
K %
98
32.6
BB %
12
11.0
Chase %
68
32.1
Whiff %
97
31.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
100
≈ 49th pctl
Stuff+
125
if they swing
Command+
77
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
123
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.3%
15 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.055
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.013 worse than avg · 79 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.011
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.019 better than avg · 24 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 283 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
49.8%96.82130+8.5+14.85.468.9%56.4%28.2%17.6%12.5%0.420
CurveballCU
18.3%82.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE51°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICUCHSLFF
Usage50%18%14%14%5%
MPH96.882.690.884.596.5
LHP Avg93.079.084.684.793.2
2770
-17.9
-7.7
5.40
77.8%
41.9%
53.5%
28.0%
69.2%
0.067
ChangeupCH
13.6%90.81764+4.6+14.45.4855.0%34.4%40.6%52.4%30.0%0.236
SliderSL
13.6%84.52529-6.5-10.35.4555.6%31.3%46.9%54.5%38.9%0.200
4-Seam FastballFF
4.7%96.52252+14.5+5.75.4225.0%27.3%27.3%37.5%16.7%0.407

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 23″CH · 27″SL · 28″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″SI · 17″CH · 33″SL · 50″CU · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.51′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICUCHSLFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICUCHSLFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICUCHSLFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.