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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

OF·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
458
H
98
HR
37
AVG
.267
xwOBA
.475
PPG
3.19
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202659261.248.376.533.285.42527.6%16.1%11.5%1751722.92—
2025164679.331
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

458 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
100
.475
xBA
87
.285
.461
.688
.357
.483
23.6%
18.3%
5.3%
53
12
644
3.93
—
2024177704.322.459.701.379.49424.3%18.9%5.4%58126773.82—
2023111458.267.409.613.346.47528.4%19.2%9.2%3733543.19—
2022178696.311.428.686.375.48225.1%15.9%9.2%62176573.69—
2021155633.287.376.544.257.42025.0%11.8%13.2%3964232.73—
202037114.257.336.554.297.38028.1%8.8%19.3%901133.05—
2019114447.272.382.540.268.40731.5%14.3%17.2%2752822.47—
2018121500.277.394.525.248.39730.4%15.2%15.2%2763512.90—
2017177678.284.424.627.343.45930.7%18.7%12.0%52105603.16—
xSLG
100
.727
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
100
97.6
Median EV
100
101.2
90th % EV
100
111.3
Barrel %
100
27.5
Hard-Hit %
100
64.2
Sweet-Spot %
86
39.2
Bat Speed
Avg
96
74.8
Median
97
76.3
90th %
90
79.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
95
19.4
Whiff %
2
33.5
K %
6
28.4
BB %
100
19.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 35th pctl
Chase cost
-26.3r
237 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-26.2r
297 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.4%
1,960 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.68
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
25+17%64+0%7415+24%17-10%30+17%36+6%17+24%175+6%17-3%35-38%52-25%53-12%49+32%22+40%10+13%39+6%49-37%65-27%71-28%47-23%13+0%6+4%26+25%36+5%44+13%31-17%18+22%94+0%9+0%10+7%14+0%8231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000