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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #1 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge · #1
V⁻ 67VORP 146V⁺ 137
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

OF·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
261
H
53
HR
17
AVG
.248
xwOBA
.425
PPG
2.92
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj99427.286.416.616.329.44425.1%17.5%7.6%3273413.44—
202659261.248
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
98
.425
xBA
70
.270
xSLG
.376
.533
.285
.425
27.6%
16.1%
11.5%
17
5
172
2.92
—
2025164679.331.461.688.357.48323.6%18.3%5.3%53126443.93—
2024177704.322.459.701.379.49424.3%18.9%5.4%58126773.82—
2023111458.267.409.613.346.47528.4%19.2%9.2%3733543.19—
2022178696.311.428.686.375.48225.1%15.9%9.2%62176573.69—
2021155633.287.376.544.257.42025.0%11.8%13.2%3964232.73—
202037114.257.336.554.297.38028.1%8.8%19.3%901133.05—
2019114447.272.382.540.268.40731.5%14.3%17.2%2752822.47—
2018121500.277.394.525.248.39730.4%15.2%15.2%2763512.90—
2017177678.284.424.627.343.45930.7%18.7%12.0%52105603.16—
98
.600
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
94
94.1
Median EV
85
95.8
90th % EV
92
109.1
Barrel %
98
21.7
Hard-Hit %
96
57.3
Sweet-Spot %
34
34.3
Bat Speed
Avg
89
74.1
Median
92
75.8
90th %
90
80.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
72
25.8
Whiff %
10
30.1
K %
16
27.6
BB %
94
16.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Chase cost
-8.2r
77 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.2r
62 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.3%
427 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.67
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3343214+50%6+0%12+33%9+67%9+83%64+40%10-4%23-16%19-30%30-20%15+90%1025+4%24-38%26-30%23-29%14+33%12+0%6+13%15+36%14-15%20-8%13+14%7+40%102313212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 427