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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall

H·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
353
H
79
HR
21
AVG
.247
xwOBA
.305
PPG
2.12
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2024102330.182.246.323.141.28730.0%6.4%23.6%110820.80—
202397353.247
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

353 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.305
xBA
0
.207
.307
.531
.284
.305
31.2%
6.2%
25.0%
21
4
206
2.12
—
202293316.212.277.399.187.29732.0%6.6%25.4%1201371.47—
2021166556.228.282.490.262.33031.3%6.3%25.0%3853432.07—
202061209.237.303.532.295.34225.8%7.2%18.6%1601342.20—
201948130.267.318.567.300.32730.0%5.4%24.6%100851.77—
2018140427.195.275.365.170.32227.4%8.7%18.7%1521841.31—
2017165649.248.306.479.231.30226.2%6.0%20.2%3163812.31—
2016161607.241.301.498.257.33727.0%6.8%20.2%3363782.35—
20153372.219.306.484.265.27836.1%8.3%27.8%50361.09—
xSLG
49
.439
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
34
88.7
Median EV
29
91.3
90th % EV
60
106.0
Barrel %
83
13.0
Hard-Hit %
32
39.1
Sweet-Spot %
42
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
53
70.6
Median
53
71.8
90th %
41
76.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
18
34.1
Whiff %
16
28.4
K %
3
31.2
BB %
21
6.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
81
≈ 3th pctl
Chase cost
-31.6r
294 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.8r
210 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.3%
1,336 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.25
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
455+14%734+44%9+45%11+13%23+32%25+54%24+58%12+29%7+12%17-19%36-34%53-33%70-11%37+68%19+33%6+37%30+17%48-38%63-48%56-27%55+82%17+56%9+40%35+32%37+40%47-5%38+29%2442+25%12+38%16+21%14+22%9331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000