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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #7 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman · #7
V⁻ 9VORP -111V⁺ 59
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C·BAL
Compare
Compare
PA
204
H
48
HR
8
AVG
.267
xwOBA
.372
PPG
2.98
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj91366.257.341.429.173.34415.5%11.1%4.4%1212142.35—
202648204.267
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

204 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
79
.372
xBA
86
.287
.347
.489
.222
.372
13.7%
10.3%
3.4%
8
0
143
2.98
—
202593367.219.307.364.145.32615.5%10.9%4.6%901791.92—
2024154639.250.321.390.140.32416.1%9.1%7.0%1913382.19—
2023162687.277.377.435.158.37814.7%13.4%1.3%2014282.64—
2022113470.254.364.445.191.34418.3%13.8%4.5%1342762.44—
xSLG
73
.475
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
63
90.3
Median EV
41
91.9
90th % EV
22
102.4
Barrel %
53
9.1
Hard-Hit %
74
46.8
Sweet-Spot %
83
39.6
Bat Speed
Avg
36
69.4
Median
31
70.3
90th %
31
74.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
68
26.2
Whiff %
93
12.0
K %
85
13.7
BB %
63
10.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 16th pctl
Chase cost
-3.5r
28 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
35 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.6%
197 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.94
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2223+17%6-25%825423-37%16-36%11-36%14-25%8+63%85+38%8+9%11-30%10-46%13+20%1044343321121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 197