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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #152 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser · #60
V⁻ —VORP -56V⁺ —
Adrian Houser

Adrian Houser

SP·SFG
Compare
Compare
BF
296
K %
15.5%
BB %
8.1%
xwOBA
.358
PTS
41
PPG
3.15
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211690.056004.504.2115.7%7.9%7.8%————1105.24
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
72
94.9
FB Spin
34
2213
Extension
2026
13
13
65.0
2
6
0
0
5.54
5.18
15.5%
8.1%
7.4%
.358
.308
66.6%
43.2%
41
3.15
20252222128.786003.503.6817.8%7.3%10.5%.312.30875.6%48.9%22810.36
202423769.315115.844.8614.5%10.3%4.2%.353.30062.8%48.2%441.91
20232522115.085004.153.7320.0%7.1%12.9%.317.32271.9%47.1%1977.88
20222524114.7610004.554.0315.2%10.1%5.1%.346.28661.6%47.5%1285.12
20213228154.3127003.624.2717.5%10.6%6.9%.313.26672.3%60.5%2848.88
2020141262.726004.884.4617.7%8.5%9.2%.332.31462.3%59.9%614.36
20193518111.367013.723.7625.3%8.0%17.3%.283.30176.2%55.4%2186.23
20187013.700003.293.6913.6%11.9%1.7%.317.30276.2%39.5%192.71
2015202.000000.006.100.0%25.0%-25.0%.330.167100.0%83.3%31.50
76
6.72
Results
xwOBA
13
.358
Barrel %
25
9.9
Hard-Hit %
17
44.1
K %
8
15.5
BB %
48
8.1
Chase %
5
24.6
Whiff %
10
17.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 81th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
104
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
102
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.4%
25 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 97 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.005
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.025 better than avg · 27 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 340 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
41.1%94.72165+8.1+16.86.694.0%49.1%20.4%25.5%0.0%0.407
ChangeupCH
18.3%85.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE39°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHFFSLCU
Usage41%18%16%14%11%
MPH94.785.795.687.982.3
RHP Avg94.386.995.086.780.2
1592
+5.2
+15.0
6.69
29.2%
33.3%
16.7%
28.1%
15.0%
0.278
4-Seam FastballFF
16.3%95.62265+15.6+8.76.6622.2%60.5%25.6%29.4%17.4%0.156
SliderSL
13.7%87.92238+3.2-2.36.7723.5%36.1%22.2%21.7%14.3%0.351
CurveballCU
10.6%82.31960-11.6-8.76.6623.1%32.1%39.3%57.9%16.7%0.303

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 20″CH · 20″SL · 22″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 26″CH · 49″SL · 41″CU · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.17′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHFFSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHFFSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHFFSLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.