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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #416 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100AJ Blubaugh
AJ Blubaugh · #60
V⁻ —VORP -65V⁺ —
AJ Blubaugh

AJ Blubaugh

RP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
189
K %
20.6%
BB %
13.2%
xwOBA
.318
PTS
89
PPG
3.18
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj35035.023064.564.4421.1%10.1%10.9%————601.73
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
72
95.0
FB Spin
49
2269
Extension
2026
28
0
44.7
3
2
0
4
4.03
4.56
20.6%
13.2%
7.4%
.318
.227
74.5%
35.5%
89
3.18
202512435.731002.024.7328.0%9.6%18.4%.281.15086.8%34.6%1078.92
42
6.42
Results
xwOBA
56
.318
Barrel %
52
8.1
Hard-Hit %
81
35.5
K %
40
20.6
BB %
2
13.2
Chase %
14
27.2
Whiff %
77
25.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 17th pctl
Stuff+
117
if they swing
Command+
80
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
100
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.5%
26 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 99 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.020 worse than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 274 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.0%95.72257+16.6+11.06.5319.6%63.0%23.0%21.6%11.6%0.438
ChangeupCH
27.5%86.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSTFCCU
Usage41%27%24%5%2%
MPH95.786.083.588.081.0
RHP Avg95.086.983.389.880.2
2343
+4.1
+15.5
6.40
27.6%
32.8%
23.9%
28.9%
8.7%
0.265
SweeperST
24.2%83.52660+1.9-14.16.4640.7%42.4%33.9%35.3%13.6%0.273
CutterFC
5.3%88.02395+7.3-3.26.4812.5%38.5%15.4%37.5%0.0%0.269
CurveballCU
2.0%81.02335-12.9-11.56.5850.0%20.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%1.265

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″ST · 25″FC · 25″CH · 24″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″ST · 52″FC · 40″CH · 48″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.28′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSTFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSTFCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSTFCCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.