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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B / OF·STL
Compare
Compare
BF
13
K %
7.7%
BB %
0.0%
xwOBA
.510
PTS
-10
PPG
-5.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2025101.000000.006.100.0%0.0%0.0%.448.333100.0%33.3%22.00
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

13 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2023
2
0
1.7
0
0
0
0
21.60
9.70
7.7%
0.0%
7.7%
.510
.636
60.6%
33.3%
-10
-5.00
Extension
0
5.52
Results
xwOBA
0
.510
Barrel %
0
16.7
Hard-Hit %
0
50.0
K %
0
7.7
BB %
100
0.0
Chase %
93
33.3
Whiff %
1
14.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
41
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
60
if they swing
Command+
63
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
65
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
28.9%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.057
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.010 worse than avg · 9 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.009 worse than avg · 7 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 45 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
OtherFA
55.6%81.01870+10.5+14.95.4812.5%56.0%12.0%27.3%0.0%0.495
ChangeupCH
24.4%72.11445

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE36°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FACHEP
Usage56%24%20%
MPH81.072.166.9
LHP Avg—84.2—
+3.6
+15.1
5.54
14.3%
36.4%
9.1%
42.9%
33.3%
0.392
EephusEP
20.0%66.91572+16.4+12.25.5920.0%33.3%22.2%33.3%0.0%0.695

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTEP · 15″CH · 18″FA · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′EP · 95″CH · 81″FA · 59″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.69′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FACHEP-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FACHEP-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FACHEP

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.