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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah

SP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
39
K %
12.8%
BB %
20.5%
xwOBA
.379
PTS
-5
PPG
-1.67
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj116.000004.814.9418.1%10.6%7.5%————77.44
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

39 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
87.9
FB Spin
12
2134
2026
3
0
7.3
0
0
0
0
9.82
6.78
12.8%
20.5%
-7.7%
.379
.280
47.9%
34.6%
-5
-1.67
20245524.312003.705.1125.0%7.7%17.3%.315.20059.1%35.4%499.80
2023202093.349005.595.6219.0%14.2%4.8%.376.30571.7%38.8%673.35
20223736217.3178002.243.3322.9%6.5%16.4%.287.24482.2%38.4%57615.57
20212120113.792003.173.7027.6%8.7%18.9%.283.24477.0%39.5%31014.76
Extension
92
7.04
Results
xwOBA
4
.379
Barrel %
11
11.5
Hard-Hit %
85
34.6
K %
1
12.8
BB %
0
20.5
Chase %
0
20.0
Whiff %
7
16.4