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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100+150+200
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

OF·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
100
H
17
HR
2
AVG
.181
xwOBA
.290
PPG
1.43
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj522.235.277.401.167.29923.0%5.2%17.8%10101.95—
202628100.181
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

100 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.290
xBA
20
.232
.222
.340
.159
.290
23.0%
3.0%
20.0%
2
4
40
1.43
—
2025137470.249.291.369.120.28926.0%4.5%21.5%981651.20—
202435104.188.243.354.166.34516.3%6.7%9.6%33742.11—
2023137402.230.275.374.144.29421.4%4.7%16.7%9112071.51—
2022116411.231.278.344.113.28018.0%5.4%12.6%841801.55—
xSLG
30
.391
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
32
88.3
Median EV
74
94.7
90th % EV
41
104.3
Barrel %
44
8.3
Hard-Hit %
50
43.1
Sweet-Spot %
77
38.9
Bat Speed
Avg
14
67.3
Median
23
69.7
90th %
15
73.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
4
42.5
Whiff %
41
22.5
K %
33
23.0
BB %
1
3.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
85
≈ 7th pctl
Chase cost
-6.0r
61 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.6r
35 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
54.1%
244 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.14
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1113111+63%8+38%8+29%7+20%10+25%822+45%11-40%10-17%18-29%14+15%13+57%73+30%10+9%11-36%14-42%19+43%74212+0%9223211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 244