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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #4 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman · #4
V⁻ 0VORP 36V⁺ 71
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
298
H
63
HR
5
AVG
.239
xwOBA
.314
PPG
1.89
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj99427.252.339.409.157.33514.4%10.5%3.8%1322462.48—
202666298.239
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
29
.314
xBA
33
.246
xSLG
.323
.337
.098
.314
17.1%
9.7%
7.4%
5
2
125
1.89
—
2025122496.272.360.461.189.34014.1%10.3%3.8%1813242.66—
2024151637.259.316.450.191.32713.5%6.9%6.6%2634152.75—
2023178724.262.364.441.179.35412.0%12.7%-0.7%2535433.05—
2022176657.259.371.454.195.35911.7%13.2%-1.5%2325132.91—
2021112400.270.359.422.152.33813.3%11.0%2.3%1212902.59—
202057181.240.350.448.208.33414.4%13.3%1.1%601392.44—
2019181690.296.428.592.296.37712.0%17.2%-5.2%4166823.77—
2018172706.286.395.531.245.37112.0%13.6%-1.6%31106083.53—
2017178628.283.355.473.190.34115.4%8.8%6.6%19194612.59—
17
.371
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
32
88.3
Median EV
54
93.0
90th % EV
18
102.0
Barrel %
17
5.2
Hard-Hit %
33
39.0
Sweet-Spot %
24
32.9
Bat Speed
Avg
17
68.0
Median
19
69.2
90th %
18
74.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
83
23.1
Whiff %
74
17.1
K %
72
17.1
BB %
56
9.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
122
≈ 99th pctl
Chase cost
-3.2r
40 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.4r
71 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
37.7%
416 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.60
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
21312+40%10+17%6+24%17+20%1051+33%6+4%24-28%29-35%23-29%21+17%64+33%12-10%20-31%32-40%30-13%15+0%725+7%14-8%12-16%19+0%1341+0%84321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 416