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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #54 of 57

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Alex Freeland
Alex Freeland · #54
V⁻ —VORP -9V⁺ —
Alex Freeland

Alex Freeland

2B / 3B·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
223
H
45
HR
3
AVG
.231
xwOBA
.277
PPG
0.86
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj2085.218.305.348.130.29726.9%10.3%16.6%22331.65—
202671223.231
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

223 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.277
xBA
5
.210
.312
.313
.082
.277
30.0%
9.9%
20.1%
3
2
61
0.86
—
20252997.190.292.310.120.25936.1%11.3%24.8%21200.69—
xSLG
3
.317
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
18
86.9
Median EV
64
93.6
90th % EV
47
104.7
Barrel %
20
5.3
Hard-Hit %
25
37.1
Sweet-Spot %
44
35.6
Bat Speed
Avg
26
68.8
Median
29
70.2
90th %
24
74.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
92
21.4
Whiff %
16
27.4
K %
7
30.0
BB %
58
9.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 88th pctl
Chase cost
-3.1r
32 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
46 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.7%
263 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.05
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
221114+0%8-12%8444+29%7+21%14-17%12-20%15-27%15+11%93+50%10-33%15-24%21-30%20-18%1131+17%6+29%75+0%8+0%64212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 263