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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #8 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Andrés Muñoz
Andrés Muñoz · #8
V⁻ —VORP 58V⁺ —
Andrés Muñoz

Andrés Muñoz

RP·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
108
K %
34.3%
BB %
9.3%
xwOBA
.333
PTS
94
PPG
3.62
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj41041.0421732.872.8131.0%9.8%21.2%————2044.98
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

108 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
98.4
FB Spin
46
2255
2026
26
0
24.3
3
4
10
0
5.18
3.55
34.3%
9.3%
25.0%
.333
.339
66.9%
43.3%
94
3.62
202573072.3334001.622.4632.7%11.0%21.7%.273.23577.9%51.4%4095.60
202461060.3372272.093.2833.2%11.2%22.0%.276.21085.6%54.0%2764.52
202355052.04713143.122.6631.6%10.4%21.2%.275.33969.8%59.0%2033.69
202273074.7354262.532.1438.7%6.0%32.7%.218.29877.4%52.6%2833.88
2021100.700000.009.1025.0%50.0%-25.0%.396.000100.0%100.0%11.00
201922023.011183.913.0630.9%11.3%19.6%.296.25970.2%41.1%733.32
Extension
68
6.64
Results
xwOBA
35
.333
Barrel %
9
11.7
Hard-Hit %
3
48.3
K %
99
34.3
BB %
31
9.3
Chase %
99
36.7
Whiff %
100
40.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
72
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
134
if they swing
Command+
83
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.7%
9 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.060
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.018 worse than avg · 45 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 18 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 158 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SliderSL
59.7%87.22304-0.5-5.86.6848.9%32.6%37.2%44.8%25.0%0.246
4-Seam FastballFF
28.5%98.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE29°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SLFFSI
Usage60%28%12%
MPH87.298.798.5
RHP Avg86.795.094.3
2216
+12.8
+8.2
6.50
30.8%
31.7%
19.5%
17.9%
22.2%
0.538
SinkerSI
11.8%98.52167+7.0+17.66.5714.3%52.9%41.2%50.0%0.0%0.485

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 21″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 17″SI · 19″SL · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.93′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SLFFSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SLFFSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SLFFSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.