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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #133 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott · #60
V⁻ —VORP -46V⁺ —
Andrew Abbott

Andrew Abbott

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
322
K %
16.5%
BB %
10.2%
xwOBA
.339
PTS
107
PPG
7.64
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919102.055004.584.5420.0%7.9%12.1%————1558.14
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
32
92.6
FB Spin
70
2342
Extension
2026
14
14
74.7
4
4
0
0
3.98
4.75
16.5%
10.2%
6.3%
.339
.270
75.6%
40.9%
107
7.64
20253130171.3107012.783.5721.8%6.3%15.5%.295.26980.2%32.9%39012.58
20242525138.01010003.724.9819.5%8.9%10.6%.313.26082.9%34.7%2359.40
20232121109.386003.874.0426.1%9.6%16.5%.306.30279.9%29.9%22010.48
51
6.53
Results
xwOBA
26
.339
Barrel %
69
6.8
Hard-Hit %
57
39.1
K %
16
16.5
BB %
17
10.2
Chase %
23
28.0
Whiff %
28
19.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 66th pctl
Stuff+
99
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.5%
52 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.000 worse than avg · 114 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.014
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.015 better than avg · 37 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 417 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
51.4%92.62317+16.7+7.46.556.0%58.5%23.4%25.4%6.4%0.371
CurveballCU
22.5%80.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUCHSTFC
Usage51%23%21%4%1%
MPH92.680.485.782.186.7
LHP Avg93.279.084.681.088.1
2800
-4.5
-12.0
6.49
29.0%
38.7%
28.0%
26.1%
26.7%
0.332
ChangeupCH
21.3%85.71927+10.0+14.86.5245.5%28.2%28.2%35.3%15.0%0.321
SweeperST
4.2%82.12831+2.7-11.26.6614.3%35.7%14.3%33.3%28.6%0.077
CutterFC
0.6%86.72589+6.5-4.26.550.0%50.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 22″CH · 22″ST · 27″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″FC · 41″CH · 47″ST · 56″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.24′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUCHSTFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUCHSTFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUCHSTFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.