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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #148 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter · #60
V⁻ —VORP -53V⁺ —
Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter

SP·PHI
Compare
Compare
BF
261
K %
18.0%
BB %
7.3%
xwOBA
.342
PTS
20
PPG
1.67
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj221785.045004.684.5419.0%8.4%10.6%————1155.21
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
86
96.2
FB Spin
35
2214
Extension
2026
12
11
58.0
1
7
0
0
6.21
5.08
18.0%
7.3%
10.7%
.342
.337
68.7%
38.5%
20
1.67
52
6.53
Results
xwOBA
23
.342
Barrel %
42
8.9
Hard-Hit %
84
34.9
K %
26
18.0
BB %
61
7.3
Chase %
76
32.6
Whiff %
30
19.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
109
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
114
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.9%
20 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.001 worse than avg · 73 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.017
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.046 better than avg · 21 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 254 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
35.8%96.62225+15.8+3.06.526.7%50.5%18.7%31.1%8.0%0.276
SliderSL
19.3%88.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE49°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSICUFSST
Usage36%19%14%13%10%9%
MPH96.688.595.081.087.582.8
RHP Avg95.086.794.380.286.783.3
2475
+5.3
-6.1
6.67
47.6%
40.8%
32.7%
27.6%
40.0%
0.123
SinkerSI
13.8%95.02094+14.1+11.96.540.0%34.3%5.7%39.1%0.0%0.336
CurveballCU
12.6%81.02622-8.7-9.16.6428.6%50.0%43.8%43.8%21.4%0.284
Split-FingerFS
9.8%87.51548+6.0+12.06.6428.6%48.0%28.0%46.2%38.5%0.088
SweeperST
8.7%82.82559+2.8-16.36.5933.3%50.0%45.5%45.5%0.0%0.584

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 22″SI · 22″ST · 27″FS · 23″SL · 27″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″SI · 25″ST · 56″FS · 44″SL · 42″CU · 59″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.63′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSICUFSST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSICUFSST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSICUFSST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.