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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #4 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman · #4
V⁻ —VORP 90V⁺ —
Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman

RP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
77
K %
33.8%
BB %
11.7%
xwOBA
.274
PTS
125
PPG
6.25
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj40040.0412013.002.8533.3%10.8%22.5%————2195.47
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

77 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
94
97.3
FB Spin
88
2441
2026
20
0
19.7
0
1
13
0
0.46
1.98
33.8%
11.7%
22.1%
.274
.220
94.7%
43.9%
125
6.25
202572066.7533341.081.5637.3%6.6%30.7%.230.21589.0%38.3%4145.75
202469062.75514223.733.0737.1%14.4%22.7%.279.31770.0%44.4%2633.81
202371067.0656203.092.7341.2%14.4%26.8%.267.32075.9%47.7%2533.56
202247040.3541014.024.1926.9%17.5%9.4%.330.23975.4%35.6%1362.89
202164058.7653013.683.8539.9%15.6%24.3%.308.29480.7%43.8%3074.80
202016016.322402.762.9248.9%8.9%40.0%.252.21791.8%27.8%764.75
201967063.7334012.262.3536.2%10.6%25.6%.269.28578.6%42.3%3875.78
201860055.7303222.261.8843.7%14.1%29.6%.245.27079.4%46.4%3626.03
201761060.3442532.832.0433.0%9.6%23.4%.251.30874.1%47.9%2974.87
Extension
97
7.19
Results
xwOBA
89
.274
Barrel %
8
12.2
Hard-Hit %
23
43.9
K %
99
33.8
BB %
9
11.7
Chase %
52
31.0
Whiff %
97
30.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
133
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
120
if they swing
Command+
111
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
136
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.4%
6 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.016
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.027 better than avg · 36 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 14 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 135 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.2%97.12418+18.3+0.87.268.3%47.5%30.0%9.5%16.7%0.361
SinkerSI
39.2%97.82444

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE55°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSISLFS
Usage39%39%16%6%
MPH97.197.885.590.8
LHP Avg93.293.084.7—
+17.3
+10.2
7.31
56.0%
55.0%
45.0%
38.9%
26.7%
0.349
SliderSL
15.7%85.52352+3.8-10.77.3633.3%43.8%18.8%11.1%40.0%0.089
Split-FingerFS
5.9%90.81189+4.7+5.37.580.0%50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.707

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 19″SL · 23″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″SI · 19″SL · 49″FS · 37″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.35′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSISLFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSISLFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSISLFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.