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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj229.001004.994.7916.2%6.2%9.9%————63.12
2025131361.317007.486.6212.5%6.3%6.2%.373.31963.9%34.5%-16-1.23
20243131170.051200
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

No MLB Statcast pitching rows for 2026.

4.66
4.72
16.7%
5.5%
11.2%
.351
.290
73.5%
38.4%
196
6.32
20232828144.0109005.315.1814.4%7.1%7.3%.363.30470.6%42.8%1485.29
20223519131.767005.544.8117.9%6.4%11.5%.333.30666.5%43.0%1484.23
20212626128.0910004.574.6823.2%8.4%14.8%.312.26370.6%44.7%2178.35
202015430.311011.783.4022.7%12.6%10.1%.309.25687.8%49.3%734.87
2018291175.062074.443.9720.0%9.6%10.4%.363.33071.8%40.7%1394.79
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
99
≈ 46th pctl
Stuff+
85
if they swing
Command+
100
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
84
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
19.7%
15 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.014
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.028 better than avg · 17 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 8 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 76 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.