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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Hays

Austin Hays

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
566
H
143
HR
16
AVG
.275
xwOBA
.310
PPG
1.90
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261244.233.250.326.093.29229.5%2.3%27.2%10121.00—
2025108417.265
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
13
.310
xBA
18
.238
xSLG
.319
.451
.186
.303
25.7%
7.0%
18.7%
15
7
250
2.31
—
202482255.255.306.396.141.29523.1%3.5%19.6%52961.17—
2023149566.275.328.444.169.31024.9%6.7%18.2%1652831.90—
2022151582.250.307.413.163.30119.6%5.8%13.8%1622861.89—
2021137530.256.308.460.204.31620.2%5.3%14.9%2263302.41—
202035134.279.333.393.114.29118.7%6.0%12.7%42671.91—
20191975.309.373.574.265.35317.3%9.3%8.0%42603.16—
20171963.217.242.317.100.24225.4%3.2%22.2%10191.00—
36
.424
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
44
89.4
Median EV
34
91.5
90th % EV
50
105.2
Barrel %
49
8.9
Hard-Hit %
37
40.1
Sweet-Spot %
8
31.5
Bat Speed
Avg
44
70.1
Median
49
71.6
90th %
29
75.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
29
30.8
Whiff %
24
26.5
K %
19
24.9
BB %
27
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 34th pctl
Chase cost
-39.9r
411 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.2r
320 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.8%
2,162 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.68
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
4+29%7+38%8+38%852+0%11+39%18+33%21+39%33+64%14+58%195+48%21-8%36-29%66-17%54-14%37+59%22+44%16+39%33-6%53-28%74-33%57-40%30+41%22+13%8+27%22+25%32+7%44+4%50+19%1653+0%75+25%8+10%10121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000