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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Hays

Austin Hays

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
417
H
101
HR
15
AVG
.265
xwOBA
.303
PPG
2.31
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261244.233.250.326.093.29229.5%2.3%27.2%10121.00—
2025108417.265
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

417 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
10
.303
xBA
15
.233
.319
.451
.186
.303
25.7%
7.0%
18.7%
15
7
250
2.31
—
202482255.255.306.396.141.29523.1%3.5%19.6%52961.17—
2023149566.275.328.444.169.31024.9%6.7%18.2%1652831.90—
2022151582.250.307.413.163.30119.6%5.8%13.8%1622861.89—
2021137530.256.308.460.204.31620.2%5.3%14.9%2263302.41—
202035134.279.333.393.114.29118.7%6.0%12.7%42671.91—
20191975.309.373.574.265.35317.3%9.3%8.0%42603.16—
20171963.217.242.317.100.24225.4%3.2%22.2%10191.00—
xSLG
24
.404
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
27
88.8
Median EV
24
91.5
90th % EV
27
104.0
Barrel %
57
10.4
Hard-Hit %
21
38.4
Sweet-Spot %
15
33.0
Bat Speed
Avg
38
69.7
Median
42
71.6
90th %
41
76.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
15
34.4
Whiff %
8
29.7
K %
23
25.7
BB %
28
7.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 20th pctl
Chase cost
-34.9r
346 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.4r
186 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.1%
1,598 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.83
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
25+10%102+0%725+12%17+30%23+19%36+44%16+50%141+36%22+0%43-24%51-20%51-2%42+45%22-14%7+48%27+11%54-26%65-30%60-11%35+69%16+33%6+23%26+29%52+22%37+26%34+18%17+14%75+9%11+21%19+20%15+14%7+14%721CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000