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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #10 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Austin Riley
Austin Riley · #10
V⁻ -20VORP 5V⁺ 54
Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
268
H
50
HR
8
AVG
.208
xwOBA
.304
PPG
1.57
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj96414.253.322.452.199.34226.3%8.1%18.3%1832092.18—
202667268.208
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
20
.304
xBA
8
.215
xSLG
.286
.358
.150
.304
28.4%
7.8%
20.6%
8
4
105
1.57
—
2025107447.260.309.428.168.33228.6%6.0%22.6%1621931.80—
2024116470.256.323.460.204.36825.1%7.9%17.2%1902472.13—
2023171715.281.351.516.235.36924.1%8.3%15.8%3734622.70—
2022175693.273.351.528.255.38624.2%8.2%16.0%3824372.50—
2021184662.303.372.531.228.36725.4%7.9%17.5%3304492.44—
202065206.239.302.415.176.34323.8%7.8%16.0%801121.72—
201985297.226.281.471.245.31336.4%5.4%31.0%1801391.64—
38
.401
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
77
91.0
Median EV
59
93.3
90th % EV
58
105.9
Barrel %
61
10.2
Hard-Hit %
59
44.6
Sweet-Spot %
9
30.7
Bat Speed
Avg
86
73.8
Median
78
74.4
90th %
78
78.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
31
32.3
Whiff %
18
28.2
K %
13
28.4
BB %
30
7.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Chase cost
-7.0r
72 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.5r
55 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.6%
399 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.61
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2322323+33%12+33%18+36%11+38%8345-35%17-29%24-21%14+38%8+0%6+27%11+43%14-42%24-34%29-23%22+69%134+20%10+28%18+15%20+14%14-25%853553411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 399