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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
470
H
109
HR
19
AVG
.256
xwOBA
.368
PPG
2.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202669281.209.294.357.148.30528.5%8.5%20.0%841081.57—
2025107447.260
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

470 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
85
.368
xBA
69
.261
.309
.428
.168
.332
28.6%
6.0%
22.6%
16
2
193
1.80
—
2024116470.256.323.460.204.36825.1%7.9%17.2%1902472.13—
2023171715.281.351.516.235.36924.1%8.3%15.8%3734622.70—
2022175693.273.351.528.255.38624.2%8.2%16.0%3824372.50—
2021184662.303.372.531.228.36725.4%7.9%17.5%3304492.44—
202065206.239.302.415.176.34323.8%7.8%16.0%801121.72—
201985297.226.281.471.245.31336.4%5.4%31.0%1801391.64—
xSLG
89
.515
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
94
93.3
Median EV
93
96.2
90th % EV
86
108.4
Barrel %
92
14.9
Hard-Hit %
93
53.4
Sweet-Spot %
82
39.2
Bat Speed
Avg
85
73.1
Median
89
74.9
90th %
82
79.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
45
28.1
Whiff %
31
25.6
K %
25
25.1
BB %
40
7.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
106
≈ 74th pctl
Chase cost
-30.9r
317 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.6r
205 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.1%
1,829 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.33
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12+42%12+50%6455+20%10+41%17+47%19+26%19+36%14+0%10+77%13+9%34-15%46-16%63-36%47+36%22+6%17+36%28+10%49-23%75-28%71-39%44+33%27+13%8+27%11+36%45+14%50-3%40+24%21+0%145+17%6+27%15+0%8+13%15+14%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000