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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
447
H
108
HR
16
AVG
.260
xwOBA
.332
PPG
1.80
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667268.208.286.358.150.30428.4%7.8%20.6%841051.57—
2025107447.260
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

447 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
47
.332
xBA
37
.246
.309
.428
.168
.332
28.6%
6.0%
22.6%
16
2
193
1.80
—
2024116470.256.323.460.204.36825.1%7.9%17.2%1902472.13—
2023171715.281.351.516.235.36924.1%8.3%15.8%3734622.70—
2022175693.273.351.528.255.38624.2%8.2%16.0%3824372.50—
2021184662.303.372.531.228.36725.4%7.9%17.5%3304492.44—
202065206.239.302.415.176.34323.8%7.8%16.0%801121.72—
201985297.226.281.471.245.31336.4%5.4%31.0%1801391.64—
xSLG
73
.475
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
88
92.3
Median EV
83
95.0
90th % EV
93
109.2
Barrel %
88
15.2
Hard-Hit %
86
50.2
Sweet-Spot %
73
38.1
Bat Speed
Avg
93
74.0
Median
92
75.3
90th %
91
80.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
44
27.9
Whiff %
19
27.5
K %
6
28.6
BB %
17
6.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 57th pctl
Chase cost
-32.5r
314 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.6r
218 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.0%
1,791 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.46
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11+29%7+71%7+0%93+86%7+31%16+0%20+42%19+47%19+31%13+14%7+47%15-8%26-15%55-7%58-6%47+41%22+21%14+45%20+2%49-34%65-26%80-27%51+48%25+0%15+27%22+29%34+29%51-26%35-13%23+18%173+27%11+11%9+18%17+6%16+14%721CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000