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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
449
H
88
HR
21
AVG
.219
xwOBA
.295
PPG
1.90
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202647170.164.278.253.089.30626.5%13.5%13.0%40370.79—
2025129449.219
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

449 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.295
xBA
3
.221
.281
.435
.216
.295
26.3%
6.7%
19.6%
21
5
245
1.90
—
2024129415.228.327.394.166.34421.0%11.3%9.7%1322141.66—
20231975.229.260.486.257.37418.7%4.0%14.7%40442.32—
xSLG
32
.414
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
53
90.2
Median EV
45
93.0
90th % EV
58
106.2
Barrel %
54
10.2
Hard-Hit %
53
45.2
Sweet-Spot %
22
34.0
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.5
Median
64
72.9
90th %
55
77.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
38
29.2
Whiff %
30
25.1
K %
15
26.3
BB %
26
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 27th pctl
Chase cost
-37.0r
355 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.8r
226 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.7%
1,849 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.75
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5+11%9+8%12+22%9+0%12+0%72+29%14+23%35+17%42+25%51+25%24+29%17+0%7+42%31+0%46-27%67-20%66-22%54+48%25+38%13+33%21+0%41-40%52-17%65-12%49+68%19+63%8+33%12+29%14+28%18+5%22+44%165413+33%6413CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000