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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #20 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Austin Wells
Austin Wells · #20
V⁻ -21VORP -193V⁺ 17
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
170
H
24
HR
4
AVG
.164
xwOBA
.306
PPG
0.79
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj74292.220.301.403.183.31524.4%9.7%14.7%1121351.82—
202647170.164
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

170 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
22
.306
xBA
4
.210
.278
.253
.089
.306
26.5%
13.5%
13.0%
4
0
37
0.79
—
2025129449.219.281.435.216.29526.3%6.7%19.6%2152451.90—
2024129415.228.327.394.166.34421.0%11.3%9.7%1322141.66—
20231975.229.260.486.257.37418.7%4.0%14.7%40442.32—
xSLG
12
.355
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
36
88.7
Median EV
78
95.1
90th % EV
62
106.3
Barrel %
30
6.9
Hard-Hit %
59
44.6
Sweet-Spot %
23
32.7
Bat Speed
Avg
48
70.3
Median
62
73.0
90th %
57
77.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
53
28.6
Whiff %
21
27.2
K %
20
26.5
BB %
81
13.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
89
≈ 14th pctl
Chase cost
-6.5r
51 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.4r
28 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.2%
262 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.98
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
223123+50%64+9%11+0%9+14%73+56%9-10%10-21%19-29%24+0%12+43%72+50%8+23%13-31%13-18%11+7%14+67%6453+43%733121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 262