Flanker the ClankerFlanker
Rankings
Leaderboards
  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
StreamersSign inConnect league →
Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #146 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober · #60
V⁻ —VORP -53V⁺ —
Bailey Ober

Bailey Ober

SP·MIN
Compare
Compare
BF
282
K %
16.3%
BB %
6.4%
xwOBA
.324
PTS
117
PPG
9.75
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020107.056004.524.3420.2%5.9%14.3%————1678.35
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
1
88.5
FB Spin
51
2275
Extension
2026
12
12
66.7
6
3
0
0
4.59
4.96
16.3%
6.4%
9.9%
.324
.251
71.0%
34.1%
117
9.75
20252828149.779005.054.8219.2%5.0%14.2%.323.29272.4%30.6%2057.32
20243232183.01210004.083.8426.9%6.1%20.8%.286.24670.5%34.3%41012.81
20232928152.787003.774.2725.2%5.0%20.2%.293.27579.8%34.7%32011.03
2022141466.043003.003.0822.5%4.8%17.7%.337.26973.8%29.4%14910.64
2021202092.333004.194.4925.3%5.0%20.3%.327.29679.8%34.2%1768.80
93
7.09
Results
xwOBA
49
.324
Barrel %
27
9.8
Hard-Hit %
90
32.7
K %
13
16.3
BB %
79
6.4
Chase %
42
29.9
Whiff %
17
18.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
105
≈ 68th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.4%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 113 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.010
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.019 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 412 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
35.2%82.92073+6.3+19.57.0621.3%48.7%22.2%33.3%9.8%0.336
4-Seam FastballFF
34.0%88.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE26°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFSLSTCUSI
Usage35%34%16%9%4%2%
MPH82.988.982.476.272.989.3
RHP Avg86.995.086.783.380.294.3
2320
+17.2
+8.5
7.12
17.6%
44.2%
27.4%
31.7%
13.0%
0.332
SliderSL
15.7%82.42090+6.6-4.47.0414.3%59.6%25.0%28.6%18.2%0.145
SweeperST
8.7%76.22305+1.2-14.17.0146.2%31.0%34.5%45.0%29.4%0.275
CurveballCU
3.9%72.92153-8.4-11.86.980.0%61.5%23.1%20.0%0.0%0.786
SinkerSI
2.4%89.32100+9.6+14.17.160.0%50.0%25.0%0.0%—2.030

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 18″SL · 21″CH · 20″ST · 22″CU · 21″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 41″SI · 41″SL · 55″CH · 55″ST · 71″CU · 79″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.52′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFSLSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFSLSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFSLSTCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.