Bailey Ober
SP · MIN
MLBAM 641927
Seasons
| Yr | BF | K% | BB% | xwOBA | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 0.329 | 29 | 5.80 |
| 2025 | 626 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 0.323 | 205 | 7.32 |
| 2024 | 710 | 26.9% | 6.1% | 0.286 | 410 | 12.81 |
| 2023 | 579 | 25.2% | 5.0% | 0.293 | 320 | 11.03 |
| 2022 | 227 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 0.337 | 149 | 10.64 |
| 2021 | 380 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 0.327 | 176 | 8.80 |
2026 MLB Percentile Rankings
Arsenal
FB Velocity
1
88.9
FB Spin
54
2305
Extension
94
7.07
Results
xwOBA
45
0.329
Barrel %
44
9.2
Hard-Hit %
84
32.3
K %
18
16.5
BB %
84
5.9
Chase %
76
32.4
Whiff %
27
20.0
Command & Stuff
Pitching+
Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.
Pitching+
105
≈ 68th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.4%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 113 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.010
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.019 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 412 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)
MLB Avg.
| CH | FF | SL | ST | CU | SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage | 35% | 34% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| MPH | 82.9 | 88.9 | 82.4 | 76.2 | 72.9 | 89.3 |
| RHP Avg | 86.9 | 95.0 | 86.7 | 83.3 | 80.2 | 94.3 |
2026 Tunneling
Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.
At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFSLSTCUSI
Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.
2026 Divergence from a Shared Origin
Every pitch type launched from the same decision-point — how far apart they end up by the plate. Bigger fan = harder arsenal to square up.
Distances from origin (in inches) show how far each pitch type separates itself from the common launch point by plate arrival. RHP.