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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Blake Snell

Blake Snell

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
18
K %
27.8%
BB %
11.1%
xwOBA
.306
PTS
-7
PPG
-7.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj9947.042003.383.3329.4%10.7%18.7%————11612.87
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

18 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
83
95.9
FB Spin
95
2510
2026
1
1
3.0
0
1
0
0
12.00
1.77
27.8%
11.1%
16.7%
.306
.545
37.5%
63.6%
-7
-7.00
2025171695.386002.642.8128.1%10.2%17.9%.285.29376.3%50.6%24214.24
20242020104.053003.122.3634.7%10.5%24.2%.255.26670.9%42.5%30115.05
20233333186.0159002.183.2331.4%13.3%18.1%.302.25487.0%43.7%52015.76
20222929147.01011003.673.0031.9%9.5%22.4%.285.31673.5%37.3%31911.00
20212929137.096003.943.6730.9%12.5%18.4%.335.28375.5%41.6%30910.66
2020171779.764003.164.2431.0%8.9%22.1%.313.27089.0%50.0%19911.71
20192624112.369104.173.1933.3%9.0%24.3%.267.33972.5%38.7%2379.12
20183332188.0215012.062.9631.5%9.1%22.4%.277.24787.2%45.7%60518.33
20172726143.058004.284.3221.7%10.8%10.9%.310.28370.8%44.8%2137.89
Extension
76
6.71
Results
xwOBA
69
.306
Barrel %
100
0.0
Hard-Hit %
100
18.2
K %
91
27.8
BB %
11
11.1
Chase %
100
46.0
Whiff %
100
40.0