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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #359 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Brad Lord
Brad Lord · #60
V⁻ —VORP -56V⁺ —
Brad Lord

Brad Lord

SP / RP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
179
K %
19.6%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.303
PTS
132
PPG
6.60
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj45256.033294.133.8519.0%7.4%11.6%————1172.60
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
65
94.5
FB Spin
74
2359
Extension
2026
20
0
43.0
4
0
1
5
2.30
3.80
19.6%
6.7%
12.9%
.303
.234
85.3%
58.3%
132
6.60
20254919131.7510074.314.1719.7%7.9%11.8%.336.29572.8%49.0%1953.98
0
5.37
Results
xwOBA
74
.303
Barrel %
94
4.7
Hard-Hit %
44
40.9
K %
35
19.6
BB %
73
6.7
Chase %
82
33.4
Whiff %
26
19.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
108
≈ 80th pctl
Stuff+
92
if they swing
Command+
113
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
93
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.0%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.018
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.011 better than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 336 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.8%94.72390+10.9+15.15.4228.9%57.3%36.5%24.4%13.9%0.345
SliderSL
26.1%85.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE18°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSICHST
Usage35%26%22%11%6%
MPH94.785.694.686.183.1
RHP Avg95.086.794.386.983.3
2546
-1.7
-2.0
5.34
25.7%
48.6%
34.7%
37.8%
16.0%
0.369
SinkerSI
22.5%94.62281+3.6+18.55.4412.5%61.3%22.6%41.7%14.3%0.297
ChangeupCH
10.9%86.11961+2.7+16.55.4513.3%23.3%10.0%39.1%8.3%0.427
SweeperST
5.8%83.12600+1.0-10.25.290.0%37.5%12.5%0.0%0.0%0.315

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″CH · 20″ST · 24″SL · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 28″CH · 48″ST · 54″SL · 48″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSICHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSICHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSICHST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.