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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #357 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt · #60
V⁻ —VORP -56V⁺ —
Brandon Pfaadt

Brandon Pfaadt

SP / RP·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
171
K %
18.1%
BB %
9.9%
xwOBA
.351
PTS
37
PPG
2.85
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj261281.044004.353.9020.5%6.1%14.4%————1325.07
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

171 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
31
92.6
FB Spin
89
2443
2026
13
3
38.0
0
1
0
2
5.92
5.44
18.1%
9.9%
8.2%
.351
.292
63.7%
50.8%
37
2.85
20253434180.3139005.344.2719.2%4.8%14.4%.353.31766.5%42.3%2517.38
20243333186.71210004.633.4924.3%5.5%18.8%.305.31264.5%42.2%33910.27
20232423118.0310005.264.6822.3%6.2%16.1%.326.31371.7%32.6%1425.92
Extension
53
6.54
Results
xwOBA
18
.351
Barrel %
9
11.7
Hard-Hit %
44
40.8
K %
28
18.1
BB %
19
9.9
Chase %
50
30.5
Whiff %
56
22.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
99
≈ 47th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.4%
25 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.051
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.009 worse than avg · 70 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.007
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.022 better than avg · 12 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 265 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
24.5%93.02298+6.9+16.46.589.1%43.1%18.5%35.1%7.1%0.401
CurveballCU
22.3%81.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE27°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICUFCSTCHFFSL
Usage25%22%17%14%11%10%2%
MPH93.081.390.183.386.492.885.4
RHP Avg94.380.289.883.386.995.086.7
2477
-11.0
-11.5
6.43
21.7%
35.6%
25.4%
34.2%
0.0%
0.180
CutterFC
17.4%90.12595+8.5+0.46.4825.9%60.9%32.6%38.9%22.2%0.270
SweeperST
13.6%83.32689+3.0-13.26.4637.5%38.9%41.7%45.5%27.8%0.220
ChangeupCH
10.6%86.42033+2.9+15.86.5815.4%28.6%14.3%30.0%14.3%0.543
4-Seam FastballFF
10.2%92.82412+15.1+7.86.5615.4%66.7%29.6%11.1%25.0%0.447
SliderSL
1.5%85.42658+5.6-4.36.300.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.023

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 22″SI · 21″ST · 26″CH · 22″SL · 26″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″FC · 36″SI · 30″ST · 54″CH · 45″SL · 51″CU · 57″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.08′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICUFCSTCHFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICUFCSTCHFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICUFCSTCHFFSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.