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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #119 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat · #60
V⁻ —VORP -37V⁺ —
Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat

SP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
240
K %
22.5%
BB %
12.1%
xwOBA
.360
PTS
43
PPG
3.58
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211266.034004.324.2320.6%9.8%10.8%————994.69
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
73
95.1
FB Spin
6
2058
Extension
2026
12
10
54.0
1
4
0
0
6.17
5.64
22.5%
12.1%
10.4%
.360
.312
70.7%
42.8%
43
3.58
20254420.702004.792.7620.2%8.3%11.9%.315.31059.3%50.0%225.50
30
6.31
Results
xwOBA
11
.360
Barrel %
26
9.9
Hard-Hit %
25
43.4
K %
53
22.5
BB %
8
12.1
Chase %
1
23.7
Whiff %
44
21.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
99
≈ 46th pctl
Stuff+
116
if they swing
Command+
85
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
113
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.4%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.000 better than avg · 106 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.028
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.002 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 356 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
31.8%96.72007+5.6+16.36.437.7%52.1%19.1%17.8%8.3%0.425
CutterFC
25.0%93.72112

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFCSTCUFFCH
Usage32%25%14%13%9%8%
MPH96.793.786.683.097.192.0
RHP Avg94.389.883.380.295.086.9
+9.0
-0.7
6.37
13.2%
56.8%
23.0%
21.9%
14.3%
0.461
SweeperST
13.5%86.62363+6.1-11.06.3635.0%50.0%32.5%30.0%26.7%0.204
CurveballCU
12.8%83.02549-11.6-11.66.2525.0%26.3%18.4%39.3%26.7%0.329
4-Seam FastballFF
8.8%97.12060+13.2+8.26.3921.4%53.8%26.9%25.0%44.4%0.230
ChangeupCH
8.1%92.01764+3.7+15.96.4230.0%37.5%25.0%20.0%0.0%0.485

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″SI · 21″FC · 23″ST · 26″CH · 23″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″SI · 23″FC · 30″ST · 46″CH · 34″CU · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.99′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFCSTCUFFCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFCSTCUFFCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFCSTCUFFCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.