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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Brandon Williamson

Brandon Williamson

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
128
K %
14.8%
BB %
15.6%
xwOBA
.388
PTS
14
PPG
2.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj17120.012004.954.9218.9%9.8%9.1%————211.25
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

128 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
10
90.7
FB Spin
55
2281
2026
6
6
28.0
2
3
0
0
6.11
6.06
14.8%
15.6%
-0.8%
.388
.268
69.1%
33.7%
14
2.33
20244314.300003.776.5220.3%8.5%11.8%.338.16787.7%32.5%287.00
20232424119.756005.044.6919.9%7.9%12.0%.334.28767.4%37.8%1606.67
Extension
10
5.99
Results
xwOBA
3
.388
Barrel %
19
10.5
Hard-Hit %
37
41.9
K %
7
14.8
BB %
0
15.6
Chase %
3
24.2
Whiff %
61
23.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 43th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.8%
44 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 126 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.002 worse than avg · 42 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 447 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
25.7%85.21908+7.6+16.66.0240.8%38.5%31.3%37.3%14.3%0.230
4-Seam FastballFF
24.4%92.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFFCSICUST
Usage26%24%24%9%9%8%
MPH85.292.688.392.975.180.5
LHP Avg84.693.288.193.079.081.0
2196
+17.7
+8.6
6.07
10.0%
49.5%
22.0%
13.0%
4.0%
0.559
CutterFC
24.1%88.32471+8.9-3.65.9216.7%55.6%24.4%10.0%27.8%0.418
SinkerSI
9.1%92.92138+14.1+13.06.0812.5%44.1%26.5%31.6%0.0%0.511
CurveballCU
8.6%75.12706-12.2-13.16.0012.5%28.1%15.6%13.0%0.0%0.292
SweeperST
8.0%80.52648+1.3-15.06.0026.7%40.0%23.3%38.9%13.3%0.233

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTSI · 19″FF · 20″FC · 20″ST · 24″CH · 23″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′SI · 31″FF · 33″FC · 41″ST · 63″CH · 51″CU · 77″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.61′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFFCSICUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFFCSICUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFFCSICUST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.