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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #28 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Brandon Woodruff
Brandon Woodruff · #28
V⁻ —VORP 49V⁺ —
Brandon Woodruff

Brandon Woodruff

SP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
122
K %
20.5%
BB %
5.7%
xwOBA
.283
PTS
65
PPG
10.83
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj141467.053003.963.8924.0%6.7%17.2%————14110.04
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

122 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
20
91.5
FB Spin
73
2351
2026
6
6
30.0
2
1
0
0
3.60
3.97
20.5%
5.7%
14.8%
.283
.238
72.0%
30.7%
65
10.83
2025121264.772003.203.1332.3%5.4%26.9%.235.24372.9%34.0%19716.42
2023131377.752002.903.4029.1%5.9%23.2%.262.21580.4%37.3%22217.08
20223030165.0137003.603.4730.6%6.8%23.8%.283.28675.9%38.3%41113.70
20213433197.01011002.652.9129.7%6.1%23.6%.280.26480.7%43.4%50814.94
2020141478.336003.222.8831.1%6.1%25.0%.264.28276.4%51.1%19113.64
20192625135.0123003.732.9229.0%6.1%22.9%.283.31773.7%45.7%34513.27
201824659.742123.622.8526.7%8.0%18.7%.298.30871.9%54.0%1566.50
20178843.023004.814.3117.3%7.6%9.7%.308.29269.8%49.6%536.63
Extension
48
6.47
Results
xwOBA
86
.283
Barrel %
54
8.0
Hard-Hit %
90
33.0
K %
40
20.5
BB %
88
5.7
Chase %
77
32.8
Whiff %
41
21.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
117
≈ 96th pctl
Stuff+
86
if they swing
Command+
123
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.7%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.032
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.010 better than avg · 89 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.014
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.015 better than avg · 14 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 291 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
40.7%92.52375+18.4+3.96.4426.9%57.4%31.9%37.5%28.6%0.185
SinkerSI
20.8%92.42309

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSICHFCCUST
Usage41%21%20%11%5%2%
MPH92.592.482.688.075.479.2
RHP Avg95.094.386.989.880.283.3
+14.4
+14.1
6.47
8.7%
56.3%
20.8%
14.3%
25.0%
0.349
ChangeupCH
20.3%82.61789+7.5+15.96.6033.3%36.2%25.5%33.3%14.3%0.426
CutterFC
11.3%88.02393+10.6-3.06.4210.0%53.8%26.9%16.7%0.0%0.300
CurveballCU
4.8%75.42597-11.8-6.86.400.0%72.7%45.5%33.3%—0.199
SweeperST
2.2%79.22388+3.7-12.26.360.0%20.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.166

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″FC · 21″ST · 22″CH · 21″CU · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 33″SI · 32″FC · 42″ST · 64″CH · 55″CU · 72″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.27′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSICHFCCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSICHFCCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSICHFCCUST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.