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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #15 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft · #15
V⁻ —VORP 73V⁺ —
Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft

SP / RP·PIT
Compare
Compare
BF
322
K %
26.7%
BB %
5.3%
xwOBA
.272
PTS
191
PPG
14.69
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2318104.065003.713.4922.2%7.4%14.8%————1988.61
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.9
FB Spin
74
2359
Extension
2026
13
13
79.7
5
3
0
0
3.28
3.11
26.7%
5.3%
21.4%
.272
.298
74.3%
46.9%
191
14.69
202526869.744042.712.7424.2%8.2%16.0%.291.31379.0%50.8%1596.12
30
6.29
Results
xwOBA
92
.272
Barrel %
90
5.6
Hard-Hit %
61
38.5
K %
85
26.7
BB %
91
5.3
Chase %
96
36.4
Whiff %
78
25.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 67th pctl
Stuff+
113
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
108
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.6%
26 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.000 better than avg · 93 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.009 better than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 341 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
31.4%96.72385+15.7+9.36.398.5%46.7%23.4%29.8%16.7%0.238
CurveballCU
29.6%84.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUSLSIFS
Usage31%30%18%17%4%
MPH96.784.691.496.490.8
RHP Avg95.080.286.794.386.7
2782
-10.7
-7.2
6.12
51.1%
39.6%
41.6%
44.3%
39.5%
0.084
SliderSL
18.5%91.42591+5.1-1.36.2538.9%50.8%31.7%32.3%31.8%0.245
SinkerSI
16.7%96.42386+7.6+16.16.4610.7%56.1%19.3%24.0%0.0%0.384
Split-FingerFS
3.8%90.81881+6.4+14.96.2412.5%61.5%15.4%20.0%50.0%0.233

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FS · 22″SI · 23″SL · 24″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″FS · 33″SI · 21″SL · 31″CU · 48″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.34′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUSLSIFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUSLSIFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUSLSIFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.