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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #156 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello · #60
V⁻ —VORP -62V⁺ —
Brayan Bello

Brayan Bello

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
282
K %
15.6%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.377
PTS
19
PPG
1.58
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1818102.067004.474.1018.2%8.3%9.9%————1387.68
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
37
92.9
FB Spin
6
2093
Extension
2026
12
8
61.0
2
6
0
0
6.34
5.02
15.6%
8.5%
7.1%
.377
.335
62.9%
50.7%
19
1.58
20253029169.0119003.414.2417.6%8.4%9.2%.328.27075.4%50.0%30710.23
20243131167.7148004.404.0821.7%9.1%12.6%.332.30572.8%51.3%3009.68
20232828157.01211004.244.3819.8%6.7%13.1%.316.30676.2%56.3%2508.93
2022141158.328004.632.8920.5%10.1%10.4%.308.40068.2%55.4%443.14
23
6.21
Results
xwOBA
5
.377
Barrel %
25
9.9
Hard-Hit %
17
44.1
K %
9
15.6
BB %
40
8.5
Chase %
62
31.7
Whiff %
54
22.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
106
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
88
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.2%
45 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.007 better than avg · 97 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.010 worse than avg · 18 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 340 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
42.3%94.12049+6.8+16.36.3117.4%46.1%25.2%24.2%9.1%0.382
CutterFC
25.0%86.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFCCHSTCUFF
Usage42%25%11%10%8%3%
MPH94.186.887.984.983.693.0
RHP Avg94.389.886.983.380.295.0
2362
+2.6
+0.2
6.23
55.6%
54.4%
48.5%
41.9%
18.2%
0.457
ChangeupCH
11.4%87.91706+4.9+16.66.3345.0%45.2%32.3%41.2%12.5%0.161
SweeperST
10.3%84.92361-2.4-8.16.1723.5%35.7%17.9%44.4%11.8%0.072
CurveballCU
8.5%83.62458-8.0-2.06.2133.3%26.1%13.0%17.6%11.8%0.382
4-Seam FastballFF
2.6%93.02009+12.9+5.56.240.0%42.9%0.0%50.0%0.0%1.355

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 21″FC · 22″CH · 21″ST · 25″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 24″FC · 44″CH · 41″ST · 47″CU · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.09′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFCCHSTCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFCCHSTCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFCCHSTCUFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.