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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #13 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker · #13
V⁻ —VORP 43V⁺ —
Bryan Baker

Bryan Baker

RP·TBR
Compare
Compare
BF
106
K %
28.3%
BB %
10.4%
xwOBA
.266
PTS
170
PPG
5.86
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj44044.0222023.503.4327.2%8.9%18.2%————1994.53
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

106 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.9
FB Spin
68
2331
2026
29
0
27.3
1
0
18
1
1.98
2.59
28.3%
10.4%
17.9%
.266
.224
82.0%
41.5%
170
5.86
202574069.7443204.003.8830.2%6.2%24.0%.311.28074.4%37.9%2092.82
202420024.311035.183.8024.7%7.5%17.2%.296.29758.1%42.9%442.20
202349047.3430123.993.8227.3%12.8%14.5%.288.25770.4%35.5%1202.45
202270273.743393.422.6826.1%8.9%17.2%.286.30270.3%42.5%1952.79
2021101.000000.001.1025.0%0.0%25.0%.335.333100.0%0.0%33.00
Extension
37
6.35
Results
xwOBA
93
.266
Barrel %
83
6.2
Hard-Hit %
93
32.3
K %
92
28.3
BB %
16
10.4
Chase %
94
35.5
Whiff %
97
31.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
114
≈ 92th pctl
Stuff+
113
if they swing
Command+
106
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
116
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.5%
6 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 43 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.062 better than avg · 7 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 133 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
52.2%96.52343+19.1+5.16.4244.0%52.5%39.0%28.6%17.6%0.238
ChangeupCH
33.6%84.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE56°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSL
Usage52%34%14%
MPH96.584.387.7
RHP Avg95.086.986.7
1840
+9.6
+15.3
6.42
38.1%
34.2%
28.9%
44.0%
22.2%
0.143
SliderSL
14.2%87.72440+2.1-6.86.4212.5%75.0%37.5%25.0%0.0%0.741

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″CH · 23″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″CH · 48″SL · 43″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.44′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.