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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #42 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds · #42
V⁻ -36VORP 16V⁺ 22
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

OF·PIT
Compare
Compare
PA
284
H
61
HR
6
AVG
.263
xwOBA
.365
PPG
2.67
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj94405.259.342.422.164.34123.3%10.2%13.0%1242042.17—
202667284.263
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
73
.365
xBA
47
.255
xSLG
.394
.414
.151
.365
21.1%
16.2%
4.9%
6
5
179
2.67
—
2025157654.245.320.402.157.33926.5%8.7%17.8%1632741.75—
2024159692.275.345.447.172.35722.5%8.2%14.3%24103662.30—
2023151640.263.333.460.197.36121.6%8.3%13.3%24123762.49—
2022156614.262.346.461.199.33723.0%9.1%13.9%2773522.26—
2021167647.302.392.521.219.39118.4%11.6%6.8%2464582.74—
202058208.189.275.357.168.31627.4%10.1%17.3%71761.31—
2019136547.313.379.502.189.35922.1%8.4%13.7%1633352.46—
52
.425
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
68
90.5
Median EV
74
94.7
90th % EV
69
106.5
Barrel %
47
8.6
Hard-Hit %
50
43.1
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.3
Bat Speed
Avg
53
70.5
Median
55
72.3
90th %
56
77.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
86
22.6
Whiff %
30
25.1
K %
45
21.1
BB %
95
16.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 62th pctl
Chase cost
-6.9r
58 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.6r
53 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.3%
395 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.40
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2333213+43%7+13%16+20%10+0%8+0%81+13%15-4%23-32%25-30%27-24%17+50%10+17%6+63%8-4%24-43%23-14%21-10%10+17%64+43%7+15%20+25%8+33%6+17%6311+0%63CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 395