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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #80 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder · #60
V⁻ —VORP -13V⁺ —
Bryce Elder

Bryce Elder

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
366
K %
19.9%
BB %
7.4%
xwOBA
.283
PTS
181
PPG
12.07
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181899.066004.434.0719.0%7.8%11.2%————1468.10
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
14
91.3
FB Spin
18
2161
Extension
2026
15
15
88.7
5
4
0
0
3.15
3.75
19.9%
7.4%
12.5%
.283
.255
75.2%
45.1%
181
12.07
20252928159.3811005.204.4519.3%7.5%11.8%.336.30467.9%48.9%1946.69
2024101049.725006.524.4920.4%7.5%12.9%.343.36664.1%49.7%272.70
20233232177.3125004.064.3717.5%8.6%8.9%.328.27673.2%50.6%3109.69
2022111058.724002.913.8520.6%10.1%10.5%.326.24780.4%50.0%11210.18
26
6.25
Results
xwOBA
86
.283
Barrel %
97
3.8
Hard-Hit %
64
38.3
K %
37
19.9
BB %
61
7.4
Chase %
36
29.4
Whiff %
31
19.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
100
≈ 48th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.5%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 69 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.029
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.000 better than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 327 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SliderSL
37.6%83.42480-3.2-3.46.1334.9%37.4%32.5%42.9%36.8%0.191
SinkerSI
20.8%91.22062

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE49°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SLSIFFCHFC
Usage38%21%19%12%11%
MPH83.491.292.785.889.0
RHP Avg86.794.395.086.989.8
+7.5
+14.3
6.17
24.1%
64.7%
42.6%
16.7%
46.7%
0.387
4-Seam FastballFF
19.0%92.72228+15.2+3.96.188.3%53.2%27.4%20.7%20.0%0.184
ChangeupCH
11.6%85.81348+4.5+11.46.2016.7%15.8%5.3%18.8%0.0%0.035
CutterFC
11.0%89.02238+11.1-1.66.200.0%69.4%11.1%18.2%0.0%0.318

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 20″SI · 22″SL · 26″CH · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″FC · 39″SI · 35″SL · 54″CH · 48″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.38′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SLSIFFCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SLSIFFCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SLSIFFCHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.