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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #2 of 41

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper · #2
V⁻ 18VORP 56V⁺ 93
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
441
H
93
HR
21
AVG
.251
xwOBA
.383
PPG
2.66
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100431.275.370.501.226.38320.5%12.7%7.8%2072842.84—
2026105441.251
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
91
.383
xBA
72
.270
xSLG
.362
.484
.233
.383
21.3%
14.3%
7.0%
21
6
279
2.66
—
2025139580.261.359.487.226.37320.9%12.1%8.8%27123622.60—
2024153631.285.374.525.240.36921.9%12.0%9.9%3074242.77—
2023139546.293.404.499.206.40221.8%14.7%7.1%21144152.99—
2022128427.286.369.512.226.39120.4%10.8%9.6%18124123.22—
2021148600.309.431.613.304.44222.3%16.7%5.6%35134973.36—
202060244.268.423.542.274.46817.6%20.1%-2.5%1381993.32—
2019161683.260.374.509.249.39526.1%14.5%11.6%35154632.88—
2018166697.248.397.495.247.40224.2%18.7%5.5%34144612.78—
2017127492.319.415.595.276.40620.1%13.8%6.3%2954463.51—
82
.498
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
62
90.1
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
81
107.8
Barrel %
65
11.0
Hard-Hit %
66
44.9
Sweet-Spot %
66
37.8
Bat Speed
Avg
75
72.8
Median
69
73.5
90th %
67
78.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
21
34.6
Whiff %
10
29.1
K %
47
21.3
BB %
94
14.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 62th pctl
Chase cost
-6.3r
72 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.0r
26 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.5%
303 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.40
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
455342+50%6+75%8+55%11+25%12+22%9+0%61+56%9+14%28-20%20-13%23-67%934+62%13+28%18+0%19-8%13+33%62123+56%9131121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 303