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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #124 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler · #60
V⁻ —VORP -38V⁺ —
Bubba Chandler

Bubba Chandler

SP·PIT
Compare
Compare
BF
279
K %
22.2%
BB %
14.3%
xwOBA
.327
PTS
67
PPG
5.15
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231582.046004.304.1121.9%10.2%11.8%————1245.38
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
98
98.3
FB Spin
82
2391
Extension
2026
13
12
62.3
2
7
0
0
4.91
4.75
22.2%
14.3%
7.9%
.327
.244
63.5%
33.7%
67
5.15
20257431.341104.022.6225.0%3.2%21.8%.298.27461.6%46.5%8812.57
62
6.60
Results
xwOBA
44
.327
Barrel %
53
8.0
Hard-Hit %
83
35.4
K %
52
22.2
BB %
0
14.3
Chase %
47
30.4
Whiff %
50
21.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 87th pctl
Stuff+
125
if they swing
Command+
90
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
129
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.2%
18 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 114 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.010 worse than avg · 27 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 343 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
57.1%98.92435+18.1+5.96.6919.1%43.7%22.3%33.3%11.3%0.415
ChangeupCH
18.0%92.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLSTCUPO
Usage57%18%12%11%1%0%
MPH98.992.490.087.787.494.9
RHP Avg95.086.986.783.380.2—
2072
+6.2
+17.7
6.71
31.3%
46.8%
30.6%
36.4%
20.0%
0.208
SliderSL
12.5%90.02452+1.5-1.96.6526.3%46.5%25.6%21.7%15.4%0.288
SweeperST
10.7%87.72507+0.6-9.16.5427.8%67.6%40.5%41.7%23.1%0.284
CurveballCU
1.4%87.42525-2.2-2.26.760.0%20.0%40.0%25.0%0.0%0.358
Pitch OutPO
0.3%94.92281+18.4+5.56.10—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTPO · 10″FF · 16″CH · 19″ST · 21″CU · 22″SL · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′PO · 26″FF · 18″CH · 33″ST · 43″CU · 46″SL · 38″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.26′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLSTCUPO-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLSTCUPO-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLSTCUPO

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.