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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #46 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Cade Cavalli
Cade Cavalli · #46
V⁻ —VORP 18V⁺ —
Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli

SP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
313
K %
24.3%
BB %
8.0%
xwOBA
.326
PTS
120
PPG
8.57
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181884.055003.983.6721.6%8.3%13.3%————1458.05
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
88
96.4
FB Spin
44
2249
Extension
2026
14
14
69.7
3
4
0
0
3.88
3.36
24.3%
8.0%
16.3%
.326
.355
70.9%
46.5%
120
8.57
2025101048.731004.254.5018.3%6.8%11.5%.319.32772.5%55.1%787.80
20224212.7120014.213.1025.0%8.3%16.7%.309.48723.4%50.0%-13-3.25
38
6.38
Results
xwOBA
47
.326
Barrel %
56
7.9
Hard-Hit %
58
39.1
K %
68
24.3
BB %
49
8.0
Chase %
56
31.4
Whiff %
63
23.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
96
≈ 34th pctl
Stuff+
117
if they swing
Command+
89
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
110
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.1%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.007 worse than avg · 100 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.024
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.005 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 370 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.9%96.12320+15.4+4.06.4311.9%54.3%30.5%20.8%8.0%0.428
Knuckle CurveKC
24.6%84.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFKCSTSICHFC
Usage35%25%18%14%7%1%
MPH96.184.484.995.889.693.9
RHP Avg95.083.083.394.386.989.8
2222
-12.6
-8.4
6.36
42.9%
31.1%
31.1%
23.5%
16.7%
0.269
SweeperST
18.3%84.92248-8.8-13.76.4231.8%29.1%23.6%30.8%13.0%0.331
SinkerSI
14.0%95.82178+7.9+13.46.436.3%40.5%21.4%20.0%42.9%0.339
ChangeupCH
7.3%89.61991+4.3+18.26.4033.3%40.9%31.8%46.2%22.2%0.076
CutterFC
1.0%93.92254+11.2+1.26.470.0%66.7%33.3%0.0%—0.815

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 18″FF · 20″SI · 22″CH · 22″ST · 26″KC · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 27″FF · 21″SI · 23″CH · 40″ST · 48″KC · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.37′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFKCSTSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFKCSTSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFKCSTSICHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.