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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #56 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Cade Horton
Cade Horton · #56
V⁻ —VORP 5V⁺ —
Cade Horton

Cade Horton

SP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
26
K %
15.4%
BB %
7.7%
xwOBA
.283
PTS
21
PPG
10.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2424120.087004.094.0620.8%7.9%12.8%————2108.74
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

26 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.5
FB Spin
96
2517
2026
2
2
7.3
1
0
0
0
2.45
4.60
15.4%
7.7%
7.7%
.283
.158
87.0%
55.0%
21
10.50
20252423120.0114002.633.5820.2%6.9%13.3%.308.25678.9%42.8%29212.17
Extension
33
6.34
Results
xwOBA
88
.283
Barrel %
93
5.0
Hard-Hit %
83
35.0
K %
8
15.4
BB %
56
7.7
Chase %
91
34.7
Whiff %
45
21.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
114
≈ 93th pctl
Stuff+
108
if they swing
Command+
114
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
104
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.2%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 45 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.013 worse than avg · 7 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 159 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
50.0%95.42533+16.6-1.16.3019.0%63.0%39.1%29.4%22.2%0.361
ChangeupCH
20.7%88.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSTCUSI
Usage50%21%12%10%8%
MPH95.488.983.883.995.8
RHP Avg95.086.983.380.294.3
1891
+10.0
+13.3
6.51
18.2%
31.6%
10.5%
46.2%
0.0%
0.105
SweeperST
12.0%83.82614-2.1-12.46.2633.3%9.1%18.2%50.0%25.0%0.235
CurveballCU
9.8%83.92558-9.2-3.16.290.0%44.4%22.2%0.0%0.0%0.591
SinkerSI
7.6%95.82414+15.6+14.96.3733.3%42.9%42.9%50.0%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″CH · 23″CU · 26″ST · 29″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 28″CH · 42″CU · 53″ST · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSTCUSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSTCUSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.