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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #2 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Cade Smith
Cade Smith · #2
V⁻ —VORP 100V⁺ —
Cade Smith

Cade Smith

RP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
120
K %
38.3%
BB %
4.2%
xwOBA
.249
PTS
202
PPG
6.97
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj44044.0522122.742.4732.5%7.4%25.1%————2415.47
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

120 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.8
FB Spin
63
2310
2026
29
0
30.3
2
0
21
0
2.67
0.99
38.3%
4.2%
34.1%
.249
.382
68.6%
37.7%
202
6.97
202580078.39516192.762.0334.6%6.3%28.3%.252.28867.2%36.4%3594.49
202485087.0711292.071.4335.6%5.9%29.7%.250.29377.7%44.6%3584.21
Extension
99
7.36
Results
xwOBA
97
.249
Barrel %
43
8.7
Hard-Hit %
37
42.0
K %
99
38.3
BB %
100
4.2
Chase %
59
31.6
Whiff %
99
34.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
126
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
119
if they swing
Command+
117
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
118
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
6.4%
16 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.030
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.013 better than avg · 104 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.018
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.047 better than avg · 10 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 251 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
63.2%96.62280+16.7+7.07.3523.1%60.6%31.1%21.2%13.0%0.379
Split-FingerFS
24.9%86.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE39°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSST
Usage63%25%12%
MPH96.686.585.2
RHP Avg95.086.783.3
584
-4.7
+7.8
7.32
30.8%
32.7%
17.3%
28.6%
11.1%
0.185
SweeperST
12.0%85.22159+2.8-14.37.2021.4%56.0%32.0%36.4%20.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″ST · 25″FS · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″ST · 50″FS · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.