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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin

3B·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
507
H
114
HR
11
AVG
.256
xwOBA
.311
PPG
2.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202695358.236.303.391.155.28114.0%6.7%7.3%10112072.18—
2025145507.256
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

507 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.311
xBA
46
.253
.336
.386
.130
.311
9.9%
5.9%
4.0%
11
26
337
2.32
—
xSLG
5
.361
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
0
83.5
Median EV
4
88.0
90th % EV
4
100.6
Barrel %
7
4.0
Hard-Hit %
3
26.9
Sweet-Spot %
4
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
4
65.5
Median
5
67.5
90th %
4
71.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
73
23.9
Whiff %
95
11.7
K %
97
9.9
BB %
15
5.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 92th pctl
Chase cost
-21.8r
254 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.9r
343 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.9%
1,833 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.00
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5535+38%841+13%8+19%16+7%27+19%27+32%22+29%14+0%6+14%14-20%35-30%71-31%72-8%49+38%21+0%8+35%20-16%57-44%78-29%63-30%43+17%29+0%9+31%16+21%43+28%46+0%27+9%22+11%9+0%8+14%7+7%14+7%14+0%6321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000