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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #12 of 57

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin · #12
V⁻ 19VORP 18V⁺ 82
Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin

3B·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
354
H
74
HR
10
AVG
.233
xwOBA
.282
PPG
2.18
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72313.247.316.362.115.30812.0%6.9%5.1%5121682.34—
202695354.233
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.282
xBA
19
.232
xSLG
.301
.390
.157
.282
13.8%
6.8%
7.0%
10
11
207
2.18
—
2025145507.256.336.386.130.3119.9%5.9%4.0%11263372.32—
3
.322
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
2
83.0
Median EV
15
89.1
90th % EV
11
100.9
Barrel %
5
2.6
Hard-Hit %
5
28.2
Sweet-Spot %
3
28.2
Bat Speed
Avg
12
67.1
Median
5
66.8
90th %
8
71.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
59
28.1
Whiff %
92
13.8
K %
88
13.8
BB %
18
6.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 69th pctl
Chase cost
-4.2r
46 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.8r
57 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.7%
300 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.33
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
122133+50%6+33%9525-33%9-23%22-47%17-25%205+33%15-22%18-36%14-19%21+0%13425+24%17-13%15-6%164312+0%7433CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 300