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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #6 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler · #6
V⁻ —VORP 88V⁺ —
Cam Schlittler

Cam Schlittler

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
317
K %
28.1%
BB %
4.4%
xwOBA
.263
PTS
250
PPG
17.86
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161682.074003.583.5224.9%8.5%16.4%————18211.35
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
88
96.5
FB Spin
85
2413
Extension
2026
14
14
82.0
7
3
0
0
1.87
2.11
28.1%
4.4%
23.7%
.263
.254
78.3%
44.6%
250
17.86
2025171791.354002.563.2627.5%10.1%17.4%.315.28883.2%36.4%22113.00
82
6.77
Results
xwOBA
95
.263
Barrel %
67
7.0
Hard-Hit %
41
41.3
K %
90
28.1
BB %
99
4.4
Chase %
93
35.3
Whiff %
71
24.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
131
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
119
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
114
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.8%
27 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.020 better than avg · 174 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.052 better than avg · 21 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 467 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.9%97.52426+17.7+6.16.7039.4%47.9%33.7%49.4%29.7%0.224
CutterFC
26.2%93.72455

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE45°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFCSICUSL
Usage40%26%24%9%1%
MPH97.593.797.184.389.2
RHP Avg95.089.894.380.286.7
+11.8
-5.4
6.71
23.0%
52.3%
24.3%
33.3%
21.4%
0.177
SinkerSI
24.0%97.12202+11.0+15.36.7912.5%63.3%27.6%38.9%21.1%0.302
CurveballCU
8.6%84.32531-9.2-3.66.7646.7%31.4%34.3%37.5%18.8%0.258
SliderSL
1.5%89.22526+2.7-6.56.700.0%0.0%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.063

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 21″SI · 19″SL · 28″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″FC · 26″SI · 19″SL · 40″CU · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.51′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFCSICUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFCSICUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFCSICUSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.