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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
37
K %
10.8%
BB %
2.7%
xwOBA
.384
PTS
14
PPG
2.80
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj909.001004.774.0217.3%7.2%10.1%————70.74
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

37 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
10
90.8
FB Spin
41
2238
2026
5
0
9.0
0
0
0
0
3.00
4.32
10.8%
2.7%
8.1%
.384
.300
84.9%
41.9%
14
2.80
202511945.722007.095.5716.0%8.0%8.0%.355.33865.6%36.0%211.91
20242222109.7410005.424.7219.9%7.4%12.5%.335.29964.9%45.9%1125.09
2023202090.038006.805.7015.8%9.1%6.7%.385.33665.8%45.6%221.10
20223131160.3157004.043.6023.5%6.3%17.2%.318.33874.7%46.8%32310.42
2021121253.715006.045.1521.1%7.6%13.5%.336.29963.1%43.8%423.50
2020131371.034003.303.6229.3%9.6%19.7%.300.29182.5%47.3%15712.08
2019251491.387114.934.1628.1%4.7%23.4%.335.35175.2%42.3%1797.16
20183533206.01712003.763.1429.5%5.5%24.0%.286.31873.2%48.0%48213.77
20173535212.7196003.263.1428.2%5.7%22.5%.297.31079.3%46.9%55615.89
Extension
80
6.75
Results
xwOBA
3
.384
Barrel %
28
9.7
Hard-Hit %
3
48.4
K %
0
10.8
BB %
100
2.7
Chase %
87
33.9
Whiff %
0
14.1