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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-200-1000+100
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

3B / SS·HOU
Compare
Compare
PA
141
H
34
HR
3
AVG
.279
xwOBA
.367
PPG
2.56
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72313.265.339.417.152.33819.5%9.8%9.7%911622.25—
202632141.279
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

141 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
77
.367
xBA
89
.289
.371
.418
.139
.367
18.4%
12.8%
5.6%
3
1
82
2.56
—
2025147587.274.331.400.126.33919.3%7.7%11.6%1302701.84—
202490367.310.392.517.207.36516.6%10.9%5.7%1402602.89—
2023144580.230.314.399.169.32922.6%10.2%12.4%1802871.99—
2022143594.289.366.464.175.36320.4%10.3%10.1%2203432.40—
2021169641.279.369.484.205.37218.1%11.7%6.4%2604812.85—
202073222.262.326.381.119.31422.1%7.2%14.9%501492.04—
201995322.278.362.566.288.39023.3%10.9%12.4%2122492.62—
2018124468.239.330.405.166.30623.7%11.3%12.4%1532782.24—
2017133481.315.394.550.235.40119.1%11.0%8.1%2424213.17—
xSLG
70
.459
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
40
89.2
Median EV
19
89.5
90th % EV
76
107.0
Barrel %
60
10.3
Hard-Hit %
43
41.2
Sweet-Spot %
89
41.2
Bat Speed
Avg
66
71.9
Median
60
72.9
90th %
72
78.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
33
32.0
Whiff %
52
21.0
K %
64
18.4
BB %
77
12.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 34th pctl
Chase cost
-7.0r
70 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.6r
49 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.2%
354 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.70
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1143235+30%10+50%105+33%645+19%16-35%17-33%18-25%20+46%134+67%6+8%24-44%32-24%17-15%1351+25%8+67%9+25%12+38%8+22%92355111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 354