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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #36 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Carlos Santana
Carlos Santana · #36
V⁻ —VORP -8V⁺ —
Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana

1B·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
26
H
2
HR
0
AVG
.083
xwOBA
.187
PPG
-0.25
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj2295.219.304.345.126.29518.6%10.2%8.4%21431.94—
2026826.083
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

26 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.187
xBA
0
.143
.154
.125
.042
.187
30.8%
7.7%
23.1%
0
0
-2
-0.25
—
2025125478.217.308.322.105.29219.0%10.9%8.1%1172141.71—
2024153596.237.328.419.182.33616.6%10.9%5.7%2343342.18—
2023154622.239.319.427.188.30916.7%10.5%6.2%2363702.40—
2022145507.201.317.375.174.35917.4%14.0%3.4%1902891.99—
2021165660.214.321.341.127.33615.5%13.0%2.5%1923372.04—
202065256.198.349.348.150.37316.8%18.4%-1.6%801482.28—
2019166688.280.397.513.233.37515.7%15.7%0.0%3445243.16—
2018166681.228.355.413.185.35113.7%16.2%-2.5%2424222.54—
2017166667.259.364.455.196.36314.1%13.2%0.9%2354612.78—
xSLG
0
.194
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
25
87.8
Median EV
25
90.1
90th % EV
7
100.2
Barrel %
0
0.0
Hard-Hit %
54
43.8
Sweet-Spot %
0
25.0
Bat Speed
Avg
48
70.3
Median
44
71.4
90th %
40
76.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
13
35.7
Whiff %
20
27.8
K %
8
30.8
BB %
30
7.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 31th pctl
Chase cost
-3.7r
30 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.8r
18 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.5%
163 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.74
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1121233342235-17%6-10%10-20%15-11%943+0%10-33%12+0%8-29%7+63%8314524432111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 163