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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Carmen Mlodzinski

Carmen Mlodzinski

SP / RP·PIT
Compare
Compare
BF
270
K %
19.3%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.349
PTS
106
PPG
8.15
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj40460.044163.893.6620.5%8.1%12.4%————1192.98
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
69
94.6
FB Spin
3
2046
Extension
2026
13
9
62.7
4
3
1
0
4.02
3.67
19.3%
8.5%
10.8%
.349
.319
73.5%
42.7%
106
8.15
2025341299.058033.553.2921.2%6.4%14.8%.313.32374.7%48.5%1705.00
202440450.755053.383.3021.9%9.0%12.9%.290.27369.2%46.5%1102.75
202335136.0331102.253.8822.2%11.8%10.4%.312.26077.1%47.5%1032.94
45
6.45
Results
xwOBA
21
.349
Barrel %
58
7.8
Hard-Hit %
1
50.5
K %
33
19.3
BB %
40
8.5
Chase %
24
28.1
Whiff %
19
19.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 55th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
100
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
96
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.5%
28 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 94 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.013 worse than avg · 17 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 330 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
Split-FingerFS
29.3%85.21631-0.5+7.56.4422.9%45.4%25.8%35.8%16.1%0.241
4-Seam FastballFF
29.0%94.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE34°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FSFFSICUSTSL
Usage29%29%18%15%7%3%
MPH85.294.794.383.983.191.2
RHP Avg86.795.094.380.283.386.7
2058
+12.2
+9.8
6.48
14.6%
44.8%
24.0%
26.4%
34.6%
0.275
SinkerSI
17.5%94.32033+7.2+16.16.514.0%58.6%27.6%25.0%12.5%0.410
CurveballCU
14.8%83.92533-9.6-6.96.3036.8%40.8%36.7%31.0%22.2%0.261
SweeperST
6.6%83.12484-3.0-12.86.4212.5%50.0%31.8%27.3%12.5%0.117
SliderSL
2.7%91.22299+6.7-1.56.460.0%22.2%11.1%14.3%0.0%0.674

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″SI · 18″ST · 21″SL · 21″FS · 21″CU · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 28″ST · 54″SL · 35″FS · 47″CU · 52″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.13′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FSFFSICUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FSFFSICUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FSFFSICUSTSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.