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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #21 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen · #21
V⁻ -33VORP -194V⁺ 18
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C·KCR
Compare
Compare
PA
224
H
42
HR
8
AVG
.213
xwOBA
.271
PPG
1.44
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72293.240.317.409.169.32425.8%10.1%15.7%931331.85—
202661224.213
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
3
.271
xBA
1
.186
xSLG
.292
.381
.168
.271
30.4%
9.4%
21.0%
8
0
88
1.44
—
20252069.300.391.550.250.44817.4%13.0%4.4%30552.75—
7
.332
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
55
90.1
Median EV
25
90.1
90th % EV
95
110.7
Barrel %
49
9.0
Hard-Hit %
37
40.3
Sweet-Spot %
13
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
67
72.0
Median
76
74.3
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
59
27.4
Whiff %
13
29.3
K %
9
30.4
BB %
51
9.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Chase cost
-6.3r
49 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.1r
43 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.6%
308 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.72
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
123+0%8314+23%13+8%12-11%18+0%9+0%82+33%12-22%18-35%23-38%215+43%71+33%12+14%14-25%16-12%16-12%8+29%715+17%6+25%84521CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 308